Why social distancing and shelter-in-place must end now

“Social distancing and shelter-in-place must end immediately, not tomorrow or next week.. Now. Not phased in. Fully and immediately.”

The discussion is endless and contentious. The questions are many, and and so are the answers. Has social distancing helped the cause in fighting SARS-Cov-19, hereafter referred to as CV-19 for simplicity? Does shelter-in-place work? When can we lift these restrictions? Should they be  lifted right away or gradually and, if the latter, over what time frame? How many people have been infected? Do we develop immunity by being infected? How long does immunity last? What is the true death rate? The list of questions goes on.

There are some points of agreement even among those divided by a wide gulf of opinion. The virus came out of Wuhan, China and spread so rapidly because the Chinese communist government deliberately misled the WHO and the world; on this there is remarkable unanimity of agreement worldwide. It is as contagious, if not more so, than seasonal flu. It hits the respiratory system particularly severely. It is mild to asymptomatic in close to 100 percent of children and young adults, and over 95% of most adults under 60, with infection fatality rates falling almost daily. Even in the most vulnerable age group, those over 80 years, the case fatality rate (deaths among those who are actually ill) is a relatively low 15% at most. We do not yet know the most important number, the infection fatality rate (deaths among those who have been infected with the virus).  This will tell us how bad CV-19 is compared to seasonal flu, the virus it is most often compared to in terms of danger.

Published by rtbosshardt

I am a plastic surgeon, in practice for 30 years, with varied interests. First and foremost is writing. I love to observe people, who are endlessly fascinating. I have interests in health and wellness, our environment, modern culture, history, and general medical matters. I was "born to run" and love long distance running. I have a Christian worldview which infuses everything I do. I hope this blog will be interesting, entertaining, informative, and, perhaps, even a little controversial. If I can get one person to delve more deeply into something I have said, I will have been successful.

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